In 2023, business activity will slow sharply, as will employment, albeit holding up better. Wide disparities by sector and size.
SMEs are expecting their average turnover growth of 1% in 2023, compared with an estimated 6% last year, in an environment where supply constraints are easing whilst demand constraints are intensifying. This average masks disparities by size, with SMEs of less than 10 employees seeing their business decline whereas SMEs with more than 50 employees are showing some momentum, and by sector, with Transport and Construction experiencing the most difficulties. Hiring is expected to slow to a lesser extent, with the indicator dropping 8 points over the year to +6, slightly below its long-term average of +8.
The cash flow situation on average remains relatively favourable.
Although the cash flow of SMEs has deteriorated since the beginning of 2022, it remains at a fairly healthy level. The balance of opinion has fallen by 1 point since last May but remains above its long-term average (-11 compared with -15). 26% of SMEs consider their cash flow to be difficult, a proportion that has risen year-on-year (24%) but is lower than the 2000-2002 average (29%).
SMEs continue to draw down their SGLs. The risk of non-repayment remains limited.
66% of SMEs with an SGL said they had used most of it (with 47% having used almost all of it), an increase of 2 points over six months and 10 points year-on-year. 4% fear that they will not be able to repay the loan, stable compared to last May.
Investment slowed in 2023, curbed by the sharp rise in the cost of credit, but access to finance is still deemed to be relatively easy.
46% of SMEs invested in 2023 or planned to do it by the end of the year, a proportion down slightly year-on-year (-1 point) and well below the pre-crisis level (51% in 2019). The indicator for growth in the amounts invested has fallen by 4 points to -5, while the cost of credit is an increasingly powerful brake on investment, cited by 56% of SMEs (34% one year ago and 19% in May 2022). However, the proportion of managing directors experiencing difficulties in accessing investment credit remains relatively low (11%, +0.7 point year-on-year). Although fewer SMEs report having made green investments in 2023, the related expenditure is expected to increase (balance of opinion at +7, after +5 for 2022).
The outlook for 2024 suggests that business will remain sluggish.
The balance of opinion on the change in expected business activity fell by 2 points to +4, edging further away from its long-term average (+17). In line with this, managing directors are planning to curb recruitment. Investment spending is also expected to be lacklustre, with the balance of opinion falling by one point to below its long-term average.
