In 2023, a slow-down in business is expected. Logically, recruitments should also be less dynamic but they are showing more resistance.
SMEs are expecting an average growth in turnover of +1% in 2023 after an estimated +6% last year. At +12, the balance of opinion has fallen 15 points over the half-year and now stands slightly below its long-term average (+14). Supply difficulties are still hampering business, even though they have eased again this half-year. Recruitments appear to be slowing down much less, with the indicator remaining well above its long-term average, while recruitment difficulties remain serious.
Starting out from a very high level in 2021, cash flow has continued to deteriorate slightly in early 2023.
On the decline since the end of 2021, SMEs' cash flow nevertheless remains at a fairly comfortable level. The balance of opinion has lost 1 point since November but remains above its long-term average (-10 versus -15). SMEs are less pessimistic than 6 months ago regarding future evolution in their cash flow, the indicator having gained 10 points over the half-year to -5.
SMEs continue to delve into their state-guaranteed loans to cope with rises in production costs.
Of SMEs having taken out state-guaranteed loans, 64% declare that they have used the greater part (with 46% having used virtually all of it), a proportion that has risen by 8 points over 6 months and 11 points over a year. 4% fear being unable to replay the loans.
Investment is decreasing somewhat this year, in a context where the cost of credit has risen markedly but access to financing remains relatively easy.
45% of SMEs intend investing in 2023, a proportion that has remained stable over a year but is still below that seen before the public health crisis (50% in May 2019 for 2019). The indicator regarding the evolution in the amounts invested has dropped one point to -3, while the cost of credit has become the main obstacle to investment, on a level with weakness of demand, cited by 48% of SMEs. However, the proportion of managing directors facing difficulties of access to investment credit remains relatively low (11%). SMEs anticipate a slight increase in their green investments this year (balance of opinion at +5).
2024 is expected to be rather sluggish but recruitment should continue to hold up.
The balance of opinion regarding expected evolution in turnover has fallen 5 points to +16, deviating sharply from its long-term aerage (+26). Employment projections are less pessimistic, the headcount forecast indicator losing 4 points to reach a level approaching its long-term average.
Given the current energy crisis, a majority of SMEs adopted energy-saving measures last year.
Among the 59% of SMEs having adopted energy-saving measures in 2022, 61% inted maintaining them in full in 2023 and 31% to a large extent.
